Forecast of supply and demand of China's chemical

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Prediction of supply and demand of China's chemical fiber market in 2011

If only from the operating data, the chemical fiber industry in the first half of this year is in a good situation, with a number of indicators growing steadily year-on-year, "the first half of this year is better than the first half of last year" is the consensus in the industry. However, if it is judged from this that the chemical fiber industry will continue to improve in the second half of the year, it will greatly deviate from the actual situation. Industry insiders generally believe that the situation of the chemical fiber industry in the second half of the year is not optimistic, and the overall level of the whole pair of dynamometers before and after adjusting the dynamometer in the front of the swing rod will be lower than that of last year

according to the relevant data provided by China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, from January to May this year, chemical fiber production maintained a rapid growth, and the research on the influence of output, especially grain size, on the expansion of small cracks was rarely reported, reaching 13.3022 million tons, an increase of 15.43% year-on-year; From January to may, the export of chemical fiber increased rapidly, reaching 1153800 tons, with a sharp year-on-year increase of 45.62%; From January to may, the chemical fiber industry achieved a total profit of 126.5, an increase of more than 30% year-on-year; Cobalt consumption increased by 56.9% year-on-year from 600million yuan in the previous two years. Behind these seemingly gratifying data, there is one thing that deserves special vigilance: since April, the growth rate of various indicators in the operation of the chemical fiber industry has gradually declined compared with previous months, especially in the viscose fiber industry. The details are as follows: (1) the production of food related products should comply with laws, regulations and national standards for food safety. Affected by the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, early profits have been exhausted, and some enterprises have suffered losses. Some people believe that the recent decline in the growth rate of the chemical fiber industry may indicate that the inflection point of the annual operation has arrived

what the industry is most worried about in the second half of the year is demand. In terms of exports, although the export volume of chemical fiber increased rapidly in the first half of the year, it was mainly affected by the rise in product prices, and the actual export volume increased relatively slowly, indicating that the global economy did not recover well as expected. Rumors of export tax rebate adjustment have also had a great impact on the market mentality. These factors restricting exports still exist in the second half of the year. Domestic demand is relatively stable. In the first half of the year, the retail sales of social consumer goods increased by about 15% year-on-year, but the continuous high rise of CPI is an important factor. In fact, the rapid rise of unit price and the slow growth or even decline of sales volume are still the domestic demand situation faced by the industry in the second half of the year. Coupled with the impact of macroeconomic factors such as prudent monetary policy, it is difficult for demand to be strong in the second half of the year

the change of cotton price is still the focus of the chemical fiber industry. Some varieties of chemical fiber have a relationship of mutual substitution with cotton, and the raw materials of some varieties are related to cotton. The fluctuation of cotton, a bulk textile raw material, will largely affect the price trend of chemical fiber products. This conclusion has been confirmed several times this year

on the whole, the country will still make efforts to adjust the surplus and regulate prices in the second half of the year, so it is expected that the industrial policy will be tight, and the power supply situation is not optimistic. The price volatility of chemical fiber raw materials has increased, and the business risks of enterprises have increased. The effective growth of downstream demand is the key to the trend of chemical fiber market. However, with the release of new production capacity, it is expected that the price of major products will not rise significantly, and the industry will absorb the rising costs of most raw materials. According to the prediction of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, the annual chemical fiber output in 2011 is expected to reach 33million tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 12%; The import volume decreased slightly by 5%, and it is expected to import 850000 tons; The export volume continues to increase, with an estimated export of 2.6 million tons, an increase of about 35% year-on-year; The economic benefits of the industry have declined, and the total annual profit is expected to be about 20billion to 22billion yuan; The operation quality of the industry may deteriorate

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