Forecast of polyethylene future market in China

China's polyethylene future forecast

this year, the polyethylene market demand is not booming, the international market oil price is declining, coupled with more imports, the polyethylene price is declining again. This winter and next spring are in the peak season of agricultural film production. It is expected that the demand will increase, and the market will change to a certain extent. There is a greater possibility of a slight rise in next spring. But generally speaking, the market is still in a state of oversupply, and the price will fluctuate. The reasons are as follows:

China's polyethylene production has increased significantly in recent years, but there is still a considerable gap between production and demand, which is one of the main reasons for market fluctuations

in recent years, with the completion and operation of new devices, polyethylene production has increased at a low cost. In 1995, the output increased to 1370700 tons, and then soared to 23 tons in 2000. The industrial development lacked scientific and comprehensive plans and policy guidance, with a large growth rate of 65500 tons. However, it is still difficult to meet the growing social needs, and the gap is still large. In the past two years, Yanshan, Qilu, Daqing, etc. are expanding ethylene production capacity, and polyethylene production will increase to a certain extent, but it will not achieve self-sufficiency in the short term, which is one of the main reasons for domestic market fluctuations in 2002

the demand for polyethylene is not booming, but it is still increasing steadily. The composition of polyethylene consumption in China is roughly as follows: film products account for about 60% of the total consumption of polyethylene (of which agricultural film accounts for about 29%, packaging film accounts for 31%), hollow containers account for 8.5%, pipes account for 8%, monofilament accounts for 7%, turnover boxes account for 4%, and other products account for 12.5%

in recent years, the effective market demand in China is insufficient, and most products have poor sales. Due to the policy of expanding domestic demand and active fiscal policy adopted by the state, the domestic market has improved and promoted the rapid economic growth. However, the contradiction of insufficient effective demand is more prominent. The vast majority of more than 600 commodities predicted by the state are basically balanced in production and marketing or supply exceeds demand. The same is true of polyethylene products. At present, it is in the peak season of agricultural and plastic film production, and the demand is expected to increase to a certain extent. This year, northern China has suffered the worst drought in a century. There will be a climax of farmland water conservancy construction this winter and next spring. The promotion of water-saving irrigation is an inevitable direction, so the demand for pipes and fittings for drainage and irrigation will increase. Polyethylene demand will rise steadily in the near future, but with little effort

the main factor affecting the domestic market is the impact of imports. China's polyethylene production is insufficient and needs to be supplemented by imports. Therefore, different quantities of imports are made every year. In recent years, China's polyethylene production has increased significantly, while imports have also increased year by year, resulting in a relative surplus of market resources and lower prices

since the beginning of this year, the domestic polyethylene market demand has been sluggish. Under the price, the aluminum group of China has successfully completed the task of developing aluminum materials for large passenger aircraft, which is not unrelated to the increase in imports. According to statistics, 1.3288 million tons of low-density polyethylene have been imported from January to July this year, an increase of 58% over the same period last year; The import of high-density polyethylene was 943300 tons, an increase of 54% over the same period last year. It is estimated that the import may decrease in the later period, but the quantity is still large, and the market will still be oversupplied

the growth rate of the world economy slows down, and the demand for polyethylene in the international market is not strong. The economic growth of the United States, a world economic power, has slowed down, and the Japanese economy has also stagnated, affecting the economic growth of other countries. In the early stage of this year, the demand for petrochemical products in the international market slowed down, with the supply of most products exceeding demand and the price falling. China's neighboring countries such as South Korea, Japan, Singapore and other countries have relatively excess polyethylene production capacity, and the economy is not booming. Their products should look for foreign markets. However, China's economy will maintain a high growth rate, with a large demand for polyethylene. In November this year, China will become a member of the WTO, so these countries may reduce prices to compete with China, and polyethylene imports may increase, which will have a certain impact on the domestic market

the oil price in the international market is unstable, and the polyethylene price will fluctuate. The demand for oil in the international market is not booming, and the price is falling. In order to stabilize the oil price, the organization of petroleum exporting countries has reduced the daily output of oil several times, but the effect is not great. Recently, the price has fallen by a large margin. Because the United States has been attacked by terrorists, the American economy will be even worse, and it will also have a certain impact on the global economy. At the same time, the oil consumption of the United States will increase due to war. In addition, the north is about to enter winter, and the oil consumption will increase greatly. Therefore, the oil market will present a turbulent situation this winter and next spring. Affected by this, polyethylene prices may still decline in the near future, and will fluctuate with oil prices in the later period